| Mon, May 20, 2013 |
| 02:23 PM |
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Economic Resilience Will Propel A $14 Trillion North American Corporate Funding Need Over Next Five Years
 From Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services estimates North American nonfinancial corporations’ financing needs over the next five years (2013-2017) at $13.5 trillion to $14.3 trillion, with two-thirds to be applied toward refinancing and the remainder toward new investment. The U.S. makes up the lion’s share of this North American debt need, [...] |
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| Wed, May 08, 2013 |
| 11:02 AM |
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Skills Mismatch Feeds Jobless Recovery in US
| Despite the drop in the U.S. jobless rate to 7.5%, Oxford Analytica warns that the large number of long-term unemployed does not bode well for future economic growth.
Excerpted from UNITED STATES: Skills mismatch feeds jobless recovery
While the continuing slow, steady improvement in the job market will gratify the administration and the Federal Reserve, [...] |
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| Fri, May 03, 2013 |
| 01:51 PM |
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US Health Insurers’ Credit Quality Strong As Sector Prepares For Reform
| From Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
Credit quality for the U.S. health insurance sector is strong with limited potential for change in the next 12 months based on sector fundamentals.
In Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ opinion, most rated health insurers remain generally sound financially as they position themselves for reform-driven change in the marketplace.
Overall, we believe [...] |
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| Mon, Apr 29, 2013 |
| 01:39 PM |
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Why Have US States Fared Better Than Euro States Since The Great Recession?
Standard & Poor’s examines why the credit quality of US states has fared better than that of Euro member states during the “Great Recession.”
Excerpted from The End Of A Beautiful Relationship? U.S. Fiscal Federalism, State Credit Quality, And Changing Times
For some individual U.S. states, the economic contraction was even more pronounced than it was [...]
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| Thu, Apr 25, 2013 |
| 12:50 PM |
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Online Ad Spending Will Surpass National TV in 2015
Online ad spending will surpass national TV in 2015, according to Standard and Poor’s.
From Industry Report Card: The Media And Entertainment Industry Is Casting For Green Shoots
We expect core ad spending to grow at or slightly less than the rate of GDP, in a convergence of several trends. Print-based advertising is likely to [...]
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| Wed, Apr 24, 2013 |
| 12:48 PM |
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More US Tech Companies Pay Dividends, and Increase Them
Technology companies rated by Moody’s are expected to pay out $44.4 billion to shareholders this year, up 35% from last year.And after its recently announced 15% dividend increase, Apple will pay out more than $11 billion in 2013, the most of any company in the US non-financial sector.
The [...]
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| Tue, Apr 23, 2013 |
| 01:30 PM |
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Downgrade Risk Remains As Japan’s Credit Quality Hinges On Its Bold Strategy To Reignite Growth
Japan’s latest effort to escape deflation and revive economic growth is a drastic departure from the policies of previous governments, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said in a report published today.
At this stage, however, a more than one-third chance remains that we will lower our ‘AA-’ long-term sovereign ratings on the nation.
The continuing prospect of [...]
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| Mon, Apr 22, 2013 |
| 01:54 PM |
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Global Oversight of Systemically Important Insurers Will Remain Lighter than for Big Banks
The degree of global oversight of systemically important insurers will remain lighter than for systemically important banks, says Oxford Analytica.
Competitive global pressures are leading to a commonality in certain key aspects of insurance regulation — as some regulators seek to avoid disadvantaging their country’s companies in global markets. However, the regulatory [...]
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| Fri, Apr 19, 2013 |
| 05:12 PM |
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US Housing Recovery Is Taking Hold, But Challenges Remain
After years of tenuous signals, the U.S. housing recovery is now finally on better footing, according to Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
Why is this time different? The most critical indicator is home prices, which increased 6.8% nationally in 2012 and which Standard & Poor’s expects to grow by another 8% in [...]
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| Thu, Apr 18, 2013 |
| 03:49 PM |
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Key Specialty Drug Developers May Overcome Operating Challenges through Consolidation
Fitch Ratings sees sustained consolidation in the specialty pharmaceutical sector as small market players try to effectively compete with larger market participants and favorably negotiate reimbursement with commercial and government payers.
Merger and acquisitions among small drug producers is the most common way specialty pharmaceutical manufacturers build scale. On occasion, small [...]
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| Wed, Apr 17, 2013 |
| 02:29 PM |
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Shadow Banking Looks Set To Capture A Larger Share Of Project Financing
From Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
The emergence of shadow banking as a significant source of finance for infrastructure projects is thrown into sharp relief in a report published by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. Inside Credit: Shadow Banking Looks Set To Capture A Larger Share Of Project Financing In 2013 finds that in just two [...]
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| Tue, Apr 16, 2013 |
| 12:37 PM |
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Large Euro Depreciation is Unlikely
Oxford Analytica believes a large depreciation of the Euro is unlikely:
Concerns over euro-area financial stability have previously contributed to large outflows from the monetary union, which have the potential to reduce the value of the euro. The most notable recent event was the 2011 drain in US dollar wholesale funding.
A large [...]
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| Mon, Apr 15, 2013 |
| 02:06 PM |
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After Obama Administration’s Budget Proposal, US Credit Trend Is Still Unclear
From Moody’s Investors Service:
The Obama administration’s budget projects a deficit of 4.4% of GDP in the next fiscal year (which ends 30 September 2014) and 3.2% in fiscal 2015, down from 6.0% in the current year. Clearly, such a trend would be positive if this budget were to be adopted. But our evaluation of the [...]
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| Tue, Jan 15, 2013 |
| 10:45 AM |
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US AAA Debt Rating Likely To Be Downgraded Without Credible Deficit Reduction Plan
From Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings’ expectation is that Congress will raise the debt ceiling and that the risk of a U.S. sovereign default remains extremely low. Nonetheless, and in line with our previous guidance, failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner will prompt a formal review of the U.S. [...]
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| Mon, Jan 14, 2013 |
| 12:11 PM |
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Outlook Stable for US Technology Sector Despite Weak Revenue Expectations
From Fitch Ratings
Fitch’s outlook on the U.S. technology sector is stable for 2013 despite weak revenue expectations.
Fitch believes the U.S. technology sector will experience negative revenue growth in the low single digits in 2013, as a confluence of factors ranging from the U.S. debt ceiling, Europe’s debt crisis, and China’s government changes [...]
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| Wed, Jan 09, 2013 |
| 11:55 AM |
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Outlook Stable for TV Broadcasters Despite Economic Weakness and Audience Fragmentation
From Standard & Poor’s Credit Research
TV broadcasters worldwide face rapidly changing business conditions. A weak global economy continues to affect core advertising spending, while evolving alternate entertainment options have fragmented audiences and raised concerns among investors that ad spending could migrate to these new options.
We believe that the culmination of [...]
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| Wed, Dec 19, 2012 |
| 01:14 PM |
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Fiscal Cliff Poses Biggest Risks to Auto, Newspaper, Gaming and Lodging Businesses
From Moody’s Investors Service:
Unless the White House and Congress reach an agreement in the next two weeks, the tax increases and expenditure cuts mandated by the “fiscal cliff” agreement will undercut US economic growth in 2013. The combination of fiscal effects and an uncertain environment for business investment might even tip the nation back into [...]
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| Tue, Dec 18, 2012 |
| 01:11 PM |
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European Leveraged Loan Market Faces €260 billion Refinancing Wall from 2014
From Fitch Ratings
The European leveraged loan market faces over €260 billion of non-investment grade corporate loan maturities from 2014 according to new analysis based on Fitch’s rated portfolio of approximately 270 leveraged credits.
The deleveraging of the European banking system is the fundamental factor raising doubt over the ability of many legacy leveraged [...]
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| Thu, Nov 15, 2012 |
| 02:53 PM |
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Brick-and-Mortar Retailers Beginning to Flex Muscle Online
From Moody’s Investors Service:
Online retailers, particularly Amazon.com, Inc. and Ebay, Inc., have proven the viability of the internet as a retail channel. But the traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have the ability and will to eventually become powerful players in the markets that the online retailers have largely developed.
The office supply and auto parts sectors are among [...]
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| Fri, Nov 09, 2012 |
| 11:39 AM |
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Vote Cuts Greek Exit Risk, But Further Debt Relief Needed
The Greek parliament’s approval of an additional EUR13.5bn of austerity measures shows that the near-term risk of Greece leaving the eurozone has receded, Fitch Ratings says. But Greece needs further debt relief, the burden of which will fall on official sector creditors, if public debt sustainability is [...]
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| Thu, Nov 08, 2012 |
| 01:52 PM |
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Sandy To Have Minimal Impact On Public Credit Ratings
From Standard & Poor’s Credit Research
Sandy generated insured losses of as much as $20 billion, according to early estimates, and total economic damages of up to $50 billion. The high end of those estimates would make Sandy, in real terms, the third-costliest storm in U.S. history, after hurricanes Katrina in 2005 [...]
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| Tue, Nov 06, 2012 |
| 01:34 PM |
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Auto Component Suppliers To Benefit From Tighter US Fuel Efficiency Standards
Automobile component suppliers such as BorgWarner, Delphi and ZF Friedrichshafen stand to benefit the most from the new fuel economy and emissions standards enacted in August 2012 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).
From Fitch Ratings
Fitch expects auto manufacturers will employ various solutions [...]
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| Mon, Nov 05, 2012 |
| 10:36 AM |
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No Detrimental Effect from Sandy on US Sovereign Creditworthiness
From Moody’s Investors Service:
Moody’s Analytics estimates the clean-up bill for last week’s Hurricane Sandy, including infrastructure repair and replacement and assistance for affected citizens at $30 billion. We expect insurance will cover half of this, with the remainder borne both publicly and privately, leaving the federal government’s portion of the clean-up bill at approximately $10 [...]
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| Thu, Nov 01, 2012 |
| 01:07 PM |
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New FSA Mortgage Affordability Rules Will Benefit UK Prime RMBS In Long Term
From Moody’s Investors Service:
New rules on affordability announced by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) following its Mortgage Market Review (MMR) will, over the long term, be credit positive for UK prime RMBS and credit negative for UK non-conforming RMBS, says Moody’s Investors Service.
The new rules, which are broadly in [...]
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| Tue, Oct 30, 2012 |
| 11:54 AM |
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Better Disclosure Would Aid Bank Comparisons, Raise Trust
From Fitch Ratings
Enhanced risk disclosure by banks is needed to assist comparison and restore investors’ confidence, Fitch Ratings says. The Financial Stability Board published Monday a report compiled by the Enhanced Disclosure Task Force (EDTF) with recommendations which would make it much easier for investors to compare the risk profiles of [...]
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| 11:19 AM |
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Outlook Remains Slightly Negative for U.S. Personal Care, Consumer Services, Apparel, And Tobacco Companies
From Standard & Poor’s Credit Research
Our outlook for U.S. personal care, consumer services, apparel, and tobacco companies continues to be slightly negative for the remainder of 2012 and into 2013. This incorporates our base-case forecast for continued slow growth in the key U.S. macroeconomic factors that influence the consumer products sector, including consumer confidence and [...]
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| Thu, Oct 25, 2012 |
| 10:57 AM |
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Moody’s Raises Outlook for Global Refiners to Stable
From Moody’s Investor Services:
Moody’s has changed its outlook for the Global Independent Refining and Marketing (R&M) sector to stable from negative. The outlook reflects the rating agency’s view of fundamental credit conditions for the industry in the coming 12-18 months.
Gasoline demand continues to face a long-term secular decline in OECD countries, [...]
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| Wed, Oct 24, 2012 |
| 12:36 PM |
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Top 10 Riskiest US Industries To (Not) Invest In
From IBISWorld
Although the economy is improving, there are several U.S. industries that are just too risky to expect much future growth, according to the latest report from industry research firm IBISWorld.
Stagnant technological innovation, market saturation and fierce competition from substitutes and low-cost imports are common factors that continue to cause the majority of these industries [...]
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| Tue, Oct 23, 2012 |
| 01:05 PM |
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Volcker Rule Could Cost Big US Banks $10 billion Annually
From Standard & Poor’s Credit Research
We currently estimate that the Volcker Rule could reduce combined pretax earnings for the eight largest U.S. banks by up to $10 billion annually, up from our initial $4 billion estimate two years ago. But the impact could also be smaller if final rules are less [...]
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| 12:47 PM |
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Banks Account for 30% of Private Equity Transactions
From Harvard Business School Working Knowledge
From a “too big to fail” perspective, banks with private equity operations can be perceived as dangerous. Wary of this connection, the Volcker Rule in the Dodd-Frank Act attempts to limit banks’ exposure to private equity and hedge funds. A new working paper sides somewhat with concerns of regulators, while [...]
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More Blogs From Research Recap
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The Deloitte Shadow Banking Index shows the volatile shadow banking system totaled $9.53 trillion at the end of 2011 ‒ more than 50 percent below its peak in 2008 ‒ and a figure considerably lower than many estimates.
The Deloitte Shadow Banking Index value differs from other market estimates. For instance, Deloitte estimates that shadow banking assets were over $10 trillion in 2010, compared to the $24 trillion estimated by the FSB.
