BEIJING, May 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.8 percent in April to 232.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in March and a 1.0 percent increase in February. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The China LEI in April once again sends a mixed message. While the composite index continued to increase, the strength in the underlying indicators was very much concentrated in bank loans and consumer sentiment. However, leading indicators in manufacturing and real estate sectors showed significant slowing in April. In contrast to the LEI, the coincident economic index for China, which looks at current economic conditions, fell for the second time in the last six months, with key indicators such as electricity production and industrial output declining. Thus, while the top line LEI growth continues to signal a moderate expansion ahead, the pattern of offsetting strengths and weaknesses among the underlying indicators suggests volatility and uncertainty, exacerbating weakening current conditions in the economy."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, declined 0.8 percent in April to 216.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in March and a 3.9 percent increase in February. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
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To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
Oct to Apr
Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
The next release is scheduled for Friday, June 22, 2012 at 10:00 A.M. (Beijing time)
SOURCE The Conference Board